Reports and Surveys | January 7, 2019

Will Geopolitics Be a Major Factor for Markets this Year?

You may be familiar with the low-tech, liquid-filled, “fortune-telling” Magic 8 Ball® that you shake to see an answer to a yes-no question mysteriously appear in a small window when you turn it over.

The responses are generally vague enough that they could be imagined as a reply to virtually any question you might ask.

As we enter the early months of the new year, given the large number of unknowns facing us, seeking to understand and develop a perspective on 2019 — and 2020 no less — seems particularly daunting.

Trying to pinpoint the future of the capital markets, even with all of the metrics and economic indicators we use to evaluate market conditions, feels about as effective as asking the Magic 8 Ball® for advice.

In our 2019 Investment Outlook we consider  the factors that could substantially impact any perspective on market direction during the coming 12 to 18 months, framed as questions, noting that any one of these items could be patched up (or worsen) at any time throughout the year. We have added what the Magic 8 Ball® might tell us in response to these questions.

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